Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year

A regional atmosphere-ocean climate system model (CCLMv5.0clm7-NEMOv3.3-NEMOv3.6) over Europe including three marginal seas: On its stability and performance

The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate system model (RCSM; with the atmospheric component COSMO-CLM and the ocean component NEMO) over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. To test the model, we evaluate a simulation of more than 100 years (1900–2009) with a spatial grid resolution of about 25 km. The simulation was nested into a coupled global simulation with the model MPI-ESM in a low-resolution configuration, whose ocean temperature and salinity were nudged to the ocean–ice component of the MPI-ESM forced with the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR). The evaluation shows the robustness of the RCSM and discusses the added value by the coupled marginal seas over an atmosphere-only simulation. The coupled system is stable for the complete 20th century and provides a better representation of extreme temperatures compared to the atmosphere-only model. The produced long-term dataset will help us to better understand the processes leading to meteorological and climate extremes

Modelling of Multi-Agent Systems: Experiences with Membrane Computing and Future Challenges

Formal modelling of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) is a challenging task due to high complexity, interaction, parallelism and continuous change of roles and organisation between agents. In this paper we record our research experience on formal modelling of MAS. We review our research throughout the last decade, by describing the problems we have encountered and the decisions we have made towards resolving them and providing solutions. Much of this work involved membrane computing and classes of P Systems, such as Tissue and Population P Systems, targeted to the modelling of MAS whose dynamic structure is a prominent characteristic. More particularly, social insects (such as colonies of ants, bees, etc.), biology inspired swarms and systems with emergent behaviour are indicative examples for which we developed formal MAS models. Here, we aim to review our work and disseminate our findings to fellow researchers who might face similar challenges and, furthermore, to discuss important issues for advancing research on the application of membrane computing in MAS modelling.Comment: In Proceedings AMCA-POP 2010, arXiv:1008.314

The effects of stand characteristics on the understory vegetation in Quercus petraea and Q. cerris dominated forests

The shelterwood system used in Hungary has many effects on the composition and structure of the herb layer. The aim of our study was to identify the main variables that affect the occurence of herbs and seedlings in Turkey oak-sessile oak (Quercus cerris and Q. petraea) stands. The study was carried out in the Bükk mountains, Hungary. 122 sampling plots were established in 50-150 year old oak forests, where we studied the species composition and structure of the understorey and overstorey. The occurence of herbs was affected by canopy closure, the heterogenity and patchiness of the stand, the slope and the east-west component of the aspect. The composition of saplings was significantly explained by the ratio of the two major oak species in the stand and the proximity of the adult plants. An important result for forest management was that sessile oaks were able to regenerate almost only where they were dominant in the overstorey

Feature integration in natural language concepts

Two experiments measured the joint influence of three key sets of semantic features on the frequency with which artifacts (Experiment 1) or plants and creatures (Experiment 2) were categorized in familiar categories. For artifacts, current function outweighed both originally intended function and current appearance. For biological kinds, appearance and behavior, an inner biological function, and appearance and behavior of offspring all had similarly strong effects on categorization. The data were analyzed to determine whether an independent cue model or an interactive model best accounted for how the effects of the three feature sets combined. Feature integration was found to be additive for artifacts but interactive for biological kinds. In keeping with this, membership in contrasting artifact categories tended to be superadditive, indicating overlapping categories, whereas for biological kinds, it was subadditive, indicating conceptual gaps between categories. It is argued that the results underline a key domain difference between artifact and biological concepts

Adsorption of CO on a Platinum (111) surface - a study within a four-component relativistic density functional approach

We report on results of a theoretical study of the adsorption process of a single carbon oxide molecule on a Platinum (111) surface. A four-component relativistic density functional method was applied to account for a proper description of the strong relativistic effects. A limited number of atoms in the framework of a cluster approach is used to describe the surface. Different adsorption sites are investigated. We found that CO is preferably adsorbed at the top position.Comment: 23 Pages with 4 figure

Extensive Spectroscopy and Photometry of the Type IIP Supernova 2013ej

We present extensive optical ($UBVRI$, $g'r'i'z'$, and open CCD) and near-infrared ($ZYJH$) photometry for the very nearby Type IIP SN ~2013ej extending from +1 to +461 days after shock breakout, estimated to be MJD $56496.9\pm0.3$. Substantial time series ultraviolet and optical spectroscopy obtained from +8 to +135 days are also presented. Considering well-observed SNe IIP from the literature, we derive $UBVRIJHK$ bolometric calibrations from $UBVRI$ and unfiltered measurements that potentially reach 2\% precision with a $B-V$ color-dependent correction. We observe moderately strong Si II $\lambda6355$ as early as +8 days. The photospheric velocity ($v_{\rm ph}$) is determined by modeling the spectra in the vicinity of Fe II $\lambda5169$ whenever observed, and interpolating at photometric epochs based on a semianalytic method. This gives $v_{\rm ph} = 4500\pm500$ km s$^{-1}$ at +50 days. We also observe spectral homogeneity of ultraviolet spectra at +10--12 days for SNe IIP, while variations are evident a week after explosion. Using the expanding photosphere method, from combined analysis of SN 2013ej and SN 2002ap, we estimate the distance to the host galaxy to be $9.0_{-0.6}^{+0.4}$ Mpc, consistent with distance estimates from other methods. Photometric and spectroscopic analysis during the plateau phase, which we estimated to be $94\pm7$ days long, yields an explosion energy of $0.9\pm0.3\times10^{51}$ ergs, a final pre-explosion progenitor mass of $15.2\pm4.2$~M$_\odot$ and a radius of $250\pm70$~R$_\odot$. We observe a broken exponential profile beyond +120 days, with a break point at +$183\pm16$ days. Measurements beyond this break time yield a $^{56}$Ni mass of $0.013\pm0.001$~M$_\odot$.Comment: 29 pages, 23 figures, 15 tables, Published in The Astrophisical Journa

The role of multiple marks in epigenetic silencing and the emergence of a stable bivalent chromatin state

We introduce and analyze a minimal model of epigenetic silencing in budding yeast, built upon known biomolecular interactions in the system. Doing so, we identify the epigenetic marks essential for the bistability of epigenetic states. The model explicitly incorporates two key chromatin marks, namely H4K16 acetylation and H3K79 methylation, and explores whether the presence of multiple marks lead to a qualitatively different systems behavior. We find that having both modifications is important for the robustness of epigenetic silencing. Besides the silenced and transcriptionally active fate of chromatin, our model leads to a novel state with bivalent (i.e., both active and silencing) marks under certain perturbations (knock-out mutations, inhibition or enhancement of enzymatic activity). The bivalent state appears under several perturbations and is shown to result in patchy silencing. We also show that the titration effect, owing to a limited supply of silencing proteins, can result in counter-intuitive responses. The design principles of the silencing system is systematically investigated and disparate experimental observations are assessed within a single theoretical framework. Specifically, we discuss the behavior of Sir protein recruitment, spreading and stability of silenced regions in commonly-studied mutants (e.g., sas2, dot1) illuminating the controversial role of Dot1 in the systems biology of yeast silencing.Comment: Supplementary Material, 14 page

The Collimation and Energetics of the Brightest Swift Gamma-Ray Bursts

Long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are widely believed to be highly-collimated explosions (opening angle theta ~ 1-10 deg). As a result of this beaming factor, the true energy release from a GRB is usually several orders of magnitude smaller than the observed isotropic value. Measuring this opening angle, typically inferred from an achromatic steepening in the afterglow light curve (a "jet" break), has proven exceedingly difficult in the Swift era. Here we undertake a study of five of the brightest (in terms of the isotropic prompt gamma-ray energy release, E(gamma, iso)) GRBs in the Swift era to search for jet breaks and hence constrain the collimation-corrected energy release. We present multi-wavelength (radio through X-ray) observations of GRBs 050820A, 060418, and 080319B, and construct afterglow models to extract the opening angle and beaming-corrected energy release for all three events. Together with results from previous analyses of GRBs 050904 and 070125, we find evidence for an achromatic jet break in all five events, strongly supporting the canonical picture of GRBs as collimated explosions. The most natural explanation for the lack of observed jet breaks from most Swift GRBs is therefore selection effects. However, the opening angles for the events in our sample are larger than would be expected if all GRBs had a canonical energy release of ~ 10e51 erg. The total energy release we measure for those "hyper-energetic" (E(total) >~ 10e52 erg) events in our sample is large enough to start challenging models with a magnetar as the compact central remnant.Comment: Submitted to ApJ, comments welcom